I very much doubt the AI singularity thing is gonna happen, because complexity doesn't scale linearly.

Example, if I make a game prototype, I can usually do it in a day. But to make a complete game out of it takes years.

Why? Because making 1 system is easy. But making a bunch of systems that all interact is exponentially more complex.

Neural nets aren't that different. To go from LLMs to AGI, you need to add a variety of neural modules that all interact, and whoops there goes complexity, up on the exponential scale.

Intelligence gives species an edge - but if that's the case, then why didn't we yet evolve to be hyper-intelligent over the past million years? We still kill ourselves regularly doing the dumbest shit. And fall for super obvious psychological traps.

Well, it's pretty much like with computer processors - at some point, you can't really go faster physically, so in that field, core speed improvements stopped around the ~4ghz mark - and instead, designers went multi-core to go parallel.

Works great for stuff that doesn't interact much, but as programmers know, if these cores run threads that have to interact with other threads (or their data, really) processed by other cores, you get slowed down a lot by having to synchronize things. Also, you need a good design to optimize this synchronization, but it will always be a hurdle.

Brains are similar. Evolution kinda got stuck with the brain design it started out with, so it could be more optimal if it were allowed to start from scratch with the knowledge we now have - and basically, that's what we can do now with AI - but in the end, there's limits to how good a system you can design.

It's the exponential complexity thing. You can't get out of this! It's a hard boundary, like a law of our nature, that can't be broken.

Systems will always consist of subsystems that interact with a variety of other systems - on all scales! On a tiny scale, you could consider each neuron a system, that interacts with multiple other systems (neurons). On a massive scale, you can consider each human a system that interacts with other systems.

Add to this another bonus "law of nature" that, the more complex things become, the more prone to collapse they are, and you have a hard limit. You can only have that much intelligence going on in this universe/reality. It all doesn't scale well.

(fun case in point: we have over 8 billion human beings running in parallel, and we're still dumb as fuck as a global society)

This toot went a bit all over the place, but I think you get my point. I should write a paper on this some time I'm not in the academic loop, maybe some people already did; but then it's odd that I never see someone mention it, and many people seem to think something like a technological singularity is a possibility.

So maybe I'm on to some insights here that are relatively novel? That, or I'm just wrong

So, I'm happy to hear counter-arguments to my, ehh, thesis? tootsis?

“There’s a common misconception that state-of-the-art technology has to be expensive, energy consumptive and hard to engineer. That’s because we have been persuaded to believe that #InnovativeTechnology is whatever bombastic billionaires claim it is, whether that’s commercial #spacecraft or the endless iterations of generative #AItools.

As the #Canadian #technologist and #engineer #UrsulaFranklin once said, fantasies of technology would have it that innovation is always “investment-driven, shiny, lab-born, experimental, exciting”. But more often than not, in the real world, it is “#NeedsDriven, #scrappy, on #location, #iterative, #practical, #mundane”.

The real pioneering #technologies of today are genuinely useful #systems I like to call “frugal tech”, and they are brought to life not by eccentric billionaires but by people doing more with less. They don’t impose #TopDown “#solutions” that seem to complicate our lives while making a few people very rich. It turns out that genuinely #innovative #technology really can set people free.” — Eleanor Drage

#OpEd / #EleanorDrage / #tech / #FrugalTech / #Cambridge #LeverhulmeCentre / #FutureOfIntelligence <https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/aug/02/billionaire-big-tech-frugal-elon-musk-innovation>

#mutualaid $140/700 this week

Hello wonderful beans of the fediverse!

We are still building out the #vulpibus while living on the road.

Let's see if we can afford some food, pay off some major bills and get some more much needed 100Ah bluetooth LiFePO4 batteries to stabilise our summer power usage. Maybe also some HRT meds...?

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@thoughtpunks

#JoannaMacy, an eco-philosopher, #Buddhist scholar, #systems #theorist, and #activist, died on July 19 at the age of 96. I quoted her excellent 1991 book The Dharma of Natural Systems: Mutual Causality in Buddhism & General Systems Theory in this 2022 post. doncurren.blogspot.com/2022/06/its-...

It’s People with Guns that Kil...

What are #solarpunk #systems and can they help us get to a more positive future? Find out in our very first episode of season 3!

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Fictional solarpunk systems in #BlackPanther, #Monk&Robot, and… #LordoftheRings?

Current solarpunk systems like #Wikipedia, #citizenscience projects, and #ecovillages

Future solarpunk systems like #rewilding the internet and non-monetary systems

Links below!

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Please #boost, thanks!

‘It’s too late’: #DavidSuzuki says the fight against #climatechange is lost - “We have #failed to shift the narrative and we are still caught up in the same #legal, #economic and #political #systems ... For me, what we’ve got to do now is hunker down.”
https://www.ipolitics.ca/2025/07/02/its-too-late-david-suzuki-says-the-fight-against-climate-change-is-lost/

"Biomimicry concepts are appearing in whole systems design. The emerging field has been called eco-mimetics ... biologically inspired systems that manage water, deal with wastes, create soils, and modify local climates."

— John Todd, Healing Earth: An Ecologist's Journey of Innovation and Environmental Stewardship

actually it is insanely simple.

- there is no infinite exponential growth in a finite environment

- without the biosphere intact there is no human life

- every system that uses up its non -#renewable resources, depletes its renewable resources faster than the rate of replenishment, or pollutes its sinks faster than the rate of breakdown of pollution

WILL #COLLAPSE.
basic #systems #ecology.

but keep on #infighting over fractions of degrees you guys.

#programming #engineering #systems I work sketching graphs of complex systems in canonical #lisp with #mcclim #emacs #eev .
https://screwlisp.small-web.org/complex/complex-systems/

Back of envelope theories of complex systems, as always with my mostly relating to off-hand comments Winograd made in the first page of his Breaking The Complexity Barrier (Again) paper.

What do you think?

Main feature is bootstrapping making these graphs somewhat in terms of themselves metacircularly.

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[#TRADESHOW] The #Solar #PV & #Energy #Storage #World #Expo 2025 will take place from August 8 to 10, 2025, at the #CantonFair Complex (Area B) in #Guangzhou. the #exhibition is the ultimate #platform #event for advancing solar #innovation, energy storage #systems, and #global #renewable energy #partnerships. https://cnbusinessforum.com/event/solar-pv-energy-storage-world-expo-2025/

[#TRADESHOW] The #Solar #PV & #Energy #Storage #World #Expo 2025 will take place from August 8 to 10, 2025, at the #CantonFair Complex (Area B) in #Guangzhou. the #exhibition is the ultimate #platform #event for advancing solar #innovation, energy storage #systems, and #global #renewable energy #partnerships. https://cnbusinessforum.com/event/solar-pv-energy-storage-world-expo-2025/

[#TRADESHOW] The #Solar #PV & #Energy #Storage #World #Expo 2025 will take place from August 8 to 10, 2025, at the #CantonFair Complex (Area B) in #Guangzhou. the #exhibition is the ultimate #platform #event for advancing solar #innovation, energy storage #systems, and #global #renewable energy #partnerships. https://cnbusinessforum.com/event/solar-pv-energy-storage-world-expo-2025/

→ How Governments Spy On #Protesters—And How To Avoid It
https://www.wired.com/video/watch/incognito-mode-protestors-

“[T]here are ways to minimize the data and thus minimize the #risks. […] [You] have to proceed as best you can and minimize your contributions to those #systems as much as as possible.”

“It's just helpful to #understand that the greater volume you're posting, the more there could be things you didn't think of that's #exposing #information that you didn't realize is now #out there.”